Blog · Silver
Silver’s supply deficit in 2026: a sixth straight year of shortfall
A genuine multi-year deficit on one side, a real demand threat from solar thrifting on the other.
2026 marks the sixth straight year of silver market deficit — a projected shortfall of about 46 million ounces. Supply rises around 1.5% to a decade-high ~1.05 billion ounces, yet the market is still short.
Demand is shifting under the surface. Solar is thrifting its silver content (PV demand down roughly 7%), but data centres, AI hardware and autos are taking up the slack. J.P. Morgan sees silver averaging around US$81/oz in 2026.
Why it matters: silver is both an industrial and a monetary metal. The deficit is the floor; solar substitution is the risk. Watch which force wins — that nuance is what the “silver to the moon” hype skips.
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The Vault Brief provides general information and commentary only. It is not financial product advice and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security or product. Precious metals and shares carry risk and prices can fall. Consider obtaining advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any decision.